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Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Initial Negotiating Positions of Iraqi Political Parties: Pre- and Post-Elections Results

By Iraq Team

The dominant reaction to the results is expression of dissatisfaction by the various groups with some alleging “fraud” but without presenting strong evidence. Even Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) is complaining about results and falls within that fold. Maliki’s State of Law Alliance (SLA) and the Kurdish Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) are very satisfied with the results, having performed well. 

In most cases, groups say they expected more seats but show indications that they are ready to move on. For example, the Sadrists initiated what they described as talks with other political groups to form the government. This development, however, will likely change and is only part of the negotiations. Various groups have registered appeals, but that process will likely not change the results a great deal. In total, discrediting the elections results can lead to damaging the legitimacy of the elections. 

A notable development to highlight is that a new political alliance was formed by the Iraqi Sunnis groups that is titled Etihad (Union). The alliance is possibly game-changing because it shows major Iraqi Sunni groups unifying and is composed of Mutahidun, Arabiyya, Iraq List, Unity of Iraq’s Sons, and Loyalty to Anbar. 

In conclusion, there is discontentment with the results for some blocs, but no major negotiating position changes yet since prior to the results. 

Iraqi Shi’a Political Groups:

National Alliance:
Theme: The office of the Prime Minister should go to the National Alliance

Statements:

PRE-ELECTION RESULTS

12 MAY: The leader of the National Alliance (NA), Ibrahim al-Jafari, stated that a meeting took place between the components of the alliance and was attended by Prime Minister Maliki. According to the statement, the political commission of the alliance formed a commission of eight members to “reevaluate” the structure of the NA. Also, the attendees discussed the budget and the importance of its approval by the Council of Representatives (CoR). Maliki briefed the attendees on the security situation. Member of the Sadrist Ahrar bloc Jawad al-Juburi stated that the attendees agreed that the office of the Prime Minister  should go to the National Alliance, without discussing who would fill that role. (Shafaq News, Al Mada Press, Al-Sumaria News)


Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the State of Law Alliance (SLA)
Theme: Satisifed with the results, stating that the National Alliance will nominate the Prime Minister candidate from the “biggest component” of the NA.

Statements:

POST-ELECTION RESULTS

19 MAY: PM Maliki held a press conference in Baghdad after the results were announced and stated that the National Alliance (NA) will form the government adding that the “biggest component” of the NA will nominate the PM. (Al Mada Press)


PRE-ELECTION RESULTS

12 MAY: Prime Minister Maliki attended the National Alliance meeting described above.


Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH):
Theme: Critical of IHEC, citing inaccurate results and that Independent High Election Commission (IHEC) was influenced to minimize AAH votes.

Statements:

POST-ELECTION RESULTS

20 MAY: Director of the political office of AAH Adnan Faihan held a press conference at AAH headquarters in Jadiriyha, central Baghdad. Faihan criticized IHEC stating that the results were not accurate and that IHEC was influenced by domestic and external bodies to minimize AAH votes and prevent “Sadiqun, the political representation of the Islamic Resistance from being in the CoR.” (All Iraq News)


Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI)
Theme: Alleged election fraud that was meant to maximize the votes for the SLA and minimize those of ISCI.

Statements:

POST-ELECTION RESULTS

19 MAY: Spokesperson of the Mowatin Citizens Alliance of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), Baligh Abu Galal along with other leaders in Mowatin held a press conference and presented “evidence” of fraud that took place in the elections that was meant to maximize the votes for the SLA and minimize those of ISCI. Abu Galal highlighted: alleged vote buying by distributing real estate and by promising IHEC staff permanent employment; discarded ballots marked in favor of ISCI; manipulation of voter turnout figures; and locks from ballots boxes that were allegedly found discarded in the streets showing tampering with ballot boxes. (Al-Mada Press)


PRE-ELECTION RESULTS

13 MAY: The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) released a statement indicating that its leader, Ammar al-Hakim, and a delegation from ISCI composed of Mowatin Speaker Baligh Abu Galal, Humam Hamudi, Ahmed al-Chalabi, and Mohammed al-Assadi visited PM Maliki at his residence. The statement added that the meeting was also attended by PM Maliki’s advisor, Abdul-Halim al-Zuhairi; a leader in the Da‘wa Party, Tariq Najim; and a leader in the State of Law Alliance (SLA), Yassin Majid. The attendees agreed on continuing the dialogue between ISCI and the SLA and to “activate the role of the NA.” Hakim stressed the need for a [partnership between the strong sides] in forming a “strong team” from within the NA to lead the country. (Al-Sumaria News, Shafaq News)
15 MAY: Abd al-Hussein al-Abtan, a leader  in the Mowatin Alliance of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) commented on the “threat” of a “decisive response” issued on May 14 by the leader of ISCI, Ammar al-Hakim, if the results of the elections are “illogical.” According to Abtan, the statement reflects ISCI’s concern regarding the delay in announcing the results. He added that IHEC answered many “legitimate complaints” submitted by ISCI after it found a group of discarded ballots in the street that had been marked for the Mowatin Alliance. (Al Mada Press)


The Sadrist Trend
Theme: Alleged electoral fraud and voting irregularities in favor of the SLA.

Statements:

POST-ELECTION RESULTS

20 MAY: Kinani held a press conference and stated that the Sadrist Ahrar bloc initiated talks with other political groups to form the government.  He added that the next Prime Minister (PM) should be from the National Alliance while being accepted by other political actors noting that the process of selecting the PM will be “very long.”  (Shafaq News)


PRE-ELECTION RESULTS

13 MAY: A spokesperson of the Sadrist Ahrar bloc Jawad al-Juburi stated that the eight-member committee that was formed as a result of the National Alliance (NA) meeting that took place on 12 May will serve to restructure the NA. He added that the NA will be “the fundamental power” that the prime minister would consult instead of a unilateral policy. (Al-Sumaria News)
18 MAY: Member of the Sadrist Ahrar bloc, Amir al-Kinani held a press conference at the Council of Representatives (CoR) and presented documents described as evidence of fraud and violation in the national elections that benefited the State of Law Alliance (SLA) of Prime Minster (PM) Nouri al-Maliki.  Among other charges, Kinani cited: alleged coercion against IHEC staff members to ensure they voted for the SLA; votes improperly given to the SLA as well as votes taken away from smaller parties; questionable turnout figures in areas around Baghdad; and alleged data manipulation by IHEC staff loyal to the SLA. Kinani stated that the above complaints will be submitted to the judiciary if IHEC’s Board of Commissioners does not address them. (Assafir News)


Iraqi Sunni Political Groups:

Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq’s Arabiyya Alliance
Theme: Alleged electoral violations and called on investigations by external organizations.
  
Statements:

POST-ELECTION RESULTS

19 MAY:  Saleh al-Mutlaq stated that a meeting took place with the political representation of the six (representation of Iraqi Sunnis in Baghdad, Diyala, Anbar, Salah ad-Din, Ninewa, and Kirkuk) provinces and that the attendees agreed that the electoral process was violated “on purpose” by a major political party. The statement called for the “immediate intervention” of the U.N and other external bodies to launch an investigation on the “purposeful violations” of the elections. (Assafir News)


PRE-ELECTION RESULTS

15 MAY: Deputy PM and the leader of the Arabiyya Alliance, Salih al-Mutlaq met with the leader of ISCI, Ammar al-Hakim and a delegation from ISCI. Mutlaq stated that both sides agree on forming a government that serves that Iraqi people. Hakim described the meeting as one of national motives that aim to make positive changes. Also, Hakim stated that the ISCI has strong relations with the Arabiyya Alliance, and that this relationship with the alliance along with other parties will answer the will of the people. (Al-Sumaria News)


Speaker Osama al-Nujaifi’s Mutahidun Alliance
Theme: Not “satisfied” with election results and claimed that military operations and other destabilizing factors contributed to low voter turnout, particularly in Anbar.

Statements:

POST-ELECTION RESULTS

20 MAY: Member of the Mutahidun Alliance Mohammed Iqbal stated that the alliance is not “satisfied” with the results of the elections citing the military operations in Anbar and other destabilizing factors in the Baghdad belts as obstacles that prevented voters from voting. He added that the Alliance will appeal the results. (All Iraq News)


PRE-ELECTION RESULTS

12 MAY: The Office of the Speaker of the Council of Representatives (CoR) released a statement indicating that Speaker Osama al-Nujaifi met with the Commander of U.S Central Command (CENTCOM), General Lloyd Austin. Speaker Nujaifi is the leader of the Mutahidun Alliance. According to the statement, Nujaifi stressed the need for political solutions over the “overt” use of force in combating ISIS and al-Qaeda. Regarding the elections, Nujaifi highlighted the negative effects the floods had on turnout in areas around Baghdad in addition to similar effects created by military operations in Anbar in preventing voters from participating in the elections. (Al-Sumaria News)
14 MAY: The Mutahidun Alliance released a statement indicating that its leader, Osama al-Nujaifi, met with the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), Ammar al-Hakim. The statement added that the two sides agreed on an expeditious release of elections results and government formation. According to the statement, both sides also agreed that the next prime minister should be approved “internally, regionally, and globally.” Also, a committee was formed in order to follow up and craft policies for the “next level.” The leaders further agreed that the current strategy based on force used in Anbar will negatively affect the Iraqi society. They discussed reforms and ways to mitigate the negative effects of some of the problems that faced the elections.  (Al-Sumaria News)


The Iraqi Kurds:

Themes - PUK: Cited an increase in seats won by the PUK and reiterated that the presidency should come from the PUK.

KDP: Expressed concern that they did not win more seats, calling for an investigation of votes cast in Erbil.

Statements:

POST-ELECTION RESULTS

20 MAY: According to an official in the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), Khosro Goran, the KDP believes that the final vote tally “betrayed the votes of the party’s electors and it is an injustice to them.” The KDP believed that it would receive more seats in Ninewa; eight seats in Erbil, rather than seven; and that it would get one seat in Diyala. The KDP expected to receive 28 seats, but received 25 seats. He added that we “demand a comparison of the forms that have been counted in Erbil and those sent to Baghdad.” (Shafaq News)
20 MAY: Member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) Ala al-Talabani described the number of seats won by the PUK in the elections as a significant increase from the last elections. Talabani added that the “Kurdistani blocs” formed a commission in order to conduct talks with other winning blocs.  She also reiterated the demand for the position of the presidency in the coming government without nominating a candidate. (All Iraq News)


PRE-ELECTION RESULTS

13 MAY: Iraqi Kurdistan President and leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), Masoud Barazani expressed his discontent regarding the relationship between Baghdad and Erbil stating that he is not willing to “go through the same experience again,” and describing the rule of PM Maliki as “totalitarian” and stating that Maliki has “changed” since he became the Prime Minister.  Barazani denied that a partnership took place with Baghdad during the rule of Maliki. He added that all options are possible to include boycotting “everything” that has to do with the federal government. Regarding the demands of Iraqi Kurdish representation in the next government and ways to ensure that they are met, Barazani stated that he “would be seeking more than paper guarantees.”  President Barazani stressed that a decision was made to “sell oil independently” and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) will continue to “produce, pump, and sell oil.” Barazani described the way the government acted in Anbar as one meant to achieve political gains. (Reuters via Trust.org)